Intrade Prediction Markets

www.intrade.com

An interesting site. But difficult to participate. Try to fund an account and you will see what I mean. Credit cards typically don't work from inside the U.S. You can wire funds through your bank or fedex/mail a check to Ireland (2-4 business days at least). Fedex charges $30 fee if sending less than $500. If it is hard to get money in, I have to imagine that it would be equally as hard to get money out. After looking into this, I think that I'll just keep my money where it belongs (in my pocket) and watch from the sidelines.

Note: I do not believe that the intrade markets track reality well because the intrade market is not made up of ordinary people. Real people have to commit real funds before you obtain a real market. Wide spread use will not occur without ease of funding. The people that go to the following lengths to risk their money do not represent the normal population. As a result, the intrade markets are skewed to the beliefs of the participating population (traders who are willing to wire funds to Ireland).

Here is further dialogue that explains the lengths some have gone to fund and intrade account. Funding your Intrade account from the USA

Saul Alinsky, Barack Obama, Community Organizing and Lucifer

Last month I heard these rumors and decided to look them up to see if they had any basis in fact.

Fact: Saul David Alinsky (January 30, 1909, Chicago, Illinois - June 12, 1972, Carmel, California) is generally considered the father of community organizing.

Fact: Thirteen years after Alinsky died, some of his former students hired Barack Obama to a $13,000 a year job as a community organizer in South Chicago.

Fact: In a few years Barack Obama became very proficient in the Alinsky Method of community organizing.

Unverified Rumor: Barack Obama became an instructor and teacher of the Alinsky Method to other community organizers.

Fact: One of Obama's early mentors in the Alinsky method was Mike Kruglik, who had this to say to Ryan Lizza of The New Republic, about Obama:

"He was a natural, the undisputed master of agitation, who could engage a room full of recruiting targets in a rapid-fire Socratic dialogue, nudging them to admit that they were not living up to their own standards. As with the panhandler, he could be aggressive and confrontational. With probing, sometimes personal questions, he would pinpoint the source of pain in their lives, tearing down their egos just enough before dangling a carrot of hope that they could make things better."

Analysis from the following editorial:
Source: Investors Business Daily Editorial

Obama has already translated several of Alinsky's rules into battle tactics, including:

• Rule: "Rub raw the resentments of the people; search out controversy and issues." In the mortgage meltdown, for instance, Obama vows to prosecute "predatory lenders" for "abusing" minority borrowers. He's also stoking class resentment by painting Wall Street and other executives as villains.

• Rule: "Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it." In an ad to woo Hispanic voters, Obama demonized Rush Limbaugh by falsely claiming he made racist statements against immigrants.

• Rule: "A mass impression can be lasting and intimidating." This explains why Obama moved his acceptance speech to a football stadium and bussed in 85,000 supporters. Alinsky's son was so impressed, he praised Obama for learning his father's "lesson well."

• Rule: "Multiple issues mean constant action and life" for the cause. This is why Obama never harps on one issue, as Hillary did with health care. His platform is packed with grievances from "economic justice" to "reproductive justice" to "environmental justice."

Obama is following almost to the letter the blueprint for socialist revolution drafted by the father of community organizing.

Fact: Saul Alinsky dedicated his Rules for Radicals book to Lucifer, "the very first radical"

In his own words: "Lest we forget at least an over-the-shoulder acknowledgment to the very first radical: from all our legends, mythology, and history (and who is to know where mythology leaves off and history begins -- or which is which), the first radical known to man who rebelled against the establishment and did it so effectively that he at least won his own kingdom -- Lucifer."

Who is Lucifer?

And so the story goes: Lucifer was created by God as a perfect angel. He was called Lucifer while he lived in heaven. After he sinned and persistently refused to repent he was thrown out of heaven. When Lucifer was cast out of heaven he lost his name Lucifer and he became known as Satan. The beast is the name that the Bible gives to Satan when he comes to earth visibly and claims to be God. Satan will appear on earth as a glorious, visible being. He will have the appearance of God. He will require the whole world to worship him as their god.

Initial questions that remain:

Just what does Barack Obama have to offer... Other than a carrot of hope that he could make things better?
What type of person would dedicate anything to Lucifer?
Is there any documented evidence that Barack Obama actually read Alinsky's book or quoted anything from it?
Is there any documented evidence that Barack Obama actually taught the Alinsky Method to other community organizers?

If there is evidence out there, please post in the comments section.

If evidence is provided for the initial questions, here are some additional questions that remain:
What type of person would follow the teachings of anyone who dedicated anything to Lucifer?
How does someone follow these teachings all the way to the doorsteps of the White House?

This may sound crazy. Too outrageous to be true. If you don't believe the information provided above, please, look it up for yourself:

Source: Wikipedia - Saul_Alinsky
Source: www.americanthinker.com - obamas_alinsky_jujitsu
Source: www.markbeast.com - lucifer-satan-devil
Source: www.answers.com - Saul Alinsky

Again, if you are aware of the answers to any of the questions above, please post in the comments section. Thank you.

How bad is the economic collapse? Where's the bottom?

Dave Simonds (from KMOX "Dollars and Sense") sent out an email yesterday that answers a few of the common questions about the economic collapse:

Hello everyone,

Don’t be intimidated by the length of this e-mail. If you don’t feel like reading the whole thing, then scroll down and pick the questions that most pertain to your situation. I sent this same e-mail to my client base, but have deleted certain issues that pertain only to them. However, the general themes remain the same.

“Is this one of the worst bear markets in history? Where does it stack up historically?”

The numbers are staggering. Through today (10-9-08), the S&P 500 was down roughly 39% for the year. That is the worst performance during any given year since 1931. Think about that for a second. The market is behaving as if we were in another depression, taking us down to levels we haven’t seen in more than 7 decades.

Here’s another one that helps put this destruction in perspective. Over the past 200 years, there have only been four cases where U.S. stocks produced zero growth over a 10-year period. That’s pretty rare, right? Well, you can add a fifth as of today. The market (as measured by the S&P 500) is now down about 15% since October, 1998. We are all living in historic times, although it’s not exactly the kind of history any of us care to make.

“So where is the bottom?”

Ah, yes, the eternal question that unfortunately has no answer. Remember, you’re talking to a guy who sent an e-mail last week detailing how bullish he was becoming. The Dow has only dropped another 1,700 points since that e-mail was sent. Granted, I wasn’t predicting a bottom or forecasting that the worst was over. But I did remark how I thought the market would be higher in a few months and I’m going to stick with that…for now.

Virtually every major indicator that we follow started flashing bullish signs last week and I’ve always been wrong in ignoring them. But I’ve had to come to the conclusion that using traditional methods to track this market have proven useless. I wish I could provide some comfort by exuding confidence that the worst is definitely over but, alas, I cannot do that. What I can do is follow the underlying fundamentals of the economy and develop a reasoned prediction of where we’re heading. But the market is trading on fear, panic, and angst. When human emotion takes over, it’s absolutely fruitless to try to predict a bottom.

“Jim Cramer of CNBC made headlines by predicting continued calamity in the market. What’s your reaction to his comments?”

Cramer is a very brilliant, if not eccentric, man. Part of his intelligence lies in the fact that he knows how the medium of television works. Make very provocative, even outrageous, predictions and watch the spotlight fall on you. But remember that Cramer was NOT sounding the “sell, sell, sell” alarm at Dow 14,000, or 13,000, or 12,000, etc. No, he told people to start going to cash as the Dow approached 10k. So he was a mere 4,000 points late in warning people, and his track record of predicting the direction of the broader market is very suspect. We prefer to follow the folks who work quietly behind the scenes, and who correctly flashed the warning signs many months ago. These same folks are now ADDING to the stock market so that’s quite encouraging.

“What about the future? Is there anything we can move to that’s more defensive?”

Unfortunately, even the “safe” stuff has broken down. In past bear markets, like 2000-02, we were able to move assets into bonds (including emerging market bonds that made us money), as well as small-cap stocks and international equities that didn’t fall as far. We were down in 2002 but not nearly as much as the market because of other areas we were able to find that provided some support.

We have no such luxury this time. I heard one market strategist say that if a bear market like this had occurred in past years, gold would probably be at least $1,500 per ounce, if not higher. And yet, it’s BELOW where it was when the market really started to drop off the table in mid-September. If you can’t make money in gold during times of distress like this, then there’s nothing I can offer that gives me any comfort, outside of federally insured money market. Even Treasuries have gotten whacked in the last couple of days. I know of one gentleman (not a client) who moved all of his money into gold and U.S. Treasuries, and he’s DOWN!

So if you really feel compelled to move a portion of your investments to higher ground, then going to cash is the only real solution. Crazy, but true.

“Do you see ANY good news? Any light at the end of the tunnel at all?”

There actually are some bullish signs that are developing. One of the most impressive is the volatility index (VIX) that is hitting levels not seen since Black Monday on October 19, 1987. As we know, that was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy cheap stocks. When the VIX rises above 30, it almost always flashes a BUY signal. It’s extremely rare for it to ever get above 40, and when it does it has ALWAYS meant a bottom in the market. Well, it hit 58 on Monday, shot above 60 today, and has remained above 50 for most of the week. Unprecedented.

As I mentioned earlier in this e-mail, the “worry warts” we follow have been adding to equities over the past few days. One example is Ned Davis, the highly regarded strategist who charges a minimum of $40,000 per year for institutions to buy his research. Mr. Davis just moved 25% of his fixed-income position over to equities. These guys won’t necessarily hit the bottom exactly, but you have to figure they see something to their liking.

Lastly, the market always bottoms at maximum pain. I don’t know if we’re there yet, but I can tell you that this is the most pain I’ve personally seen and felt in my career. But don’t take my word for it. I’ve talked to some of the elder statesmen of my business who’ve been around for 40-plus years and they also remark how they’ve never seen anything like this. They’ve had more people cash out than on Black Monday, and that’s saying a ton.

“Promise, last question. What’s going to happen after the elections next month?”

I don’t know, you tell me who’s going to win! I’ve been saying for months that I believe we’ll get a post-election rally but I want to amend that somewhat. Because the average American/investor is so fed up with what’s happening, the mantra of “change” is becoming less of a desire and more of a demand. That helps Obama and hurts McCain. So if the former wins, I do believe we’ll get a post-election rally. Could be a short-lived rally, I don’t know. But my conviction of what happens with a McCain victory is less certain. The market may view it as more of the same (whether that’s fair or not is immaterial) and we may not necessarily see a rally that I would have hoped for a couple of months ago.

But let me clear, this is just a short-term prediction. I believe if Obama gets what he’s campaigning for, namely higher taxes on wealthy individuals while adopting some protectionist legislation in THIS environment, that could be detrimental longer term for the economy and the markets. But I’ll wait to see if those kinds of policies are even enacted before commenting further.

That’s it. I’m off to Chicago tomorrow afternoon to run the marathon this Sunday, so I will not be hosting the show this weekend. I have so much pent-up energy right now, you may see this shocking headline: “St. Louis native shocks the world by beating the Kenyans in world record time!” And then in true Forrest Gump fashion, I’ll just keep running for months on end.

Dave

David W. Simons, CFPâ

Vice President

Wealth Management Advisor

Senior Financial Advisor

Those who tried to warn us.

One of the people who tried to warn us of the errors in the government's economic and housing policies was Peter Wallison.

From the New York Times 1999 (see the article uncovered by Dave Simonds below): Peter Wallison said: ''If they fail, the government will have to step up and bail them out the way it stepped up and bailed out the thrift industry.''

Peter Wallison should be considered "one of the guys who had it right all along". We should be listening to this guy now, instad of Barney Frank and Chris Dodd who appear to be complicit contributors to the problem.

Who is Peter Wallison?

Peter Wallison Biography from www.sec.gov

Here is a good interview with Peter Wallison from September 2008:

Q&A with Peter Wallison on the topic of the economic crisis

The economic collapse: Where it all started.

Dave Simons (From KMOX “Dollars and Sense”) has uncovered a gem from the archives. Here's a copy of Dave's email that was sent out earlier today:

Good morning “Dollars and Sense” listeners,

This is legitimate, I found it on the archives of the New York Times. Notice the date, around 9 years ago. Pay special attention to one particular expert who was warning of the eventual consequences. Too bad nobody paid attention.

New York Times Article - September 30, 1999

Let me say that I think it’s noble, in theory, to allow more people to have access to The American Dream. IN THEORY. In reality, it just doesn’t work. I’ll never forget walking into a lender’s office as a young married man, very naïve to what it would take to buy my first house. I was politely told to come back when I could muster a 20% down payment. Let’s hope we’re getting back to those days.

Dave

P.S. I’ll be sending an e-mail later today on my thoughts of the current status (meltdown?) of the financial markets, with some eye-opening tidbits that puts this bear market near the very top of the worst in history. So does that mean we can only go up from here? Stay tuned.


David W. Simons, CFPâ
Vice President
Wealth Management Advisor
Senior Financial Advisor

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: How to put out a kitchen oil fire.

Pay close attention to the face of the woman at the end of the video.

This is a dramatic video (30-second, very short) about how to deal with a common kitchen fire ... oil in a frying pan.

At Fire Fighting Training school they demonstrate this with a deep fat fryer set on the fire field. An instructor would don a fire suit and using an 8 oz cup at the end of a 10 foot pole toss water onto the grease fire. The results got the attention of the students.

The water, being heavier than oil, sinks to the bottomwhere it instantly becomes super heated. The explosive force of the steam blows the burning oil up and out. On the open field,it became a thirty foot high fireball that resembled a nuclear blast. Inside the confines of a kitchen, the fire ball hits the ceiling and fills the entire room.

Also, do not throw sugar or flour on a grease fire.

This is a powerful message----watch the video and don't forget what you see. Tell your whole family about this video. Or better yet, send this to them.

Video: A Kitchen Oil Fire

Saturday Night Live takes up the topic of the ridiculous bailout bill.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3igb71c_XI

What could Michael Crichton, Rush Limbaugh, Charlton Heston and Religion possibly have to do with Global Warming?

Please set aside any predjudice that you may have. Just for one moment. And listen to the following intellectual argument questioning the premise that man is significant enough to either ruin or save this world's climate. This is an audio clip of Charlton Heston reading from Michael Crichton's book "Jurassic Park" for the Rush Limbaugh show.

Audio Clip - Charlton Heston reads Jurassic Park

Here is a further glimpse into Michael Crichton's view of the world:

Michael Crichton Speech: Complexity Theory and Environmental Management

Here, Rush Limbaugh makes a compelling argument that describes the anti global warming movement as a form of religion.

Audio Clip - Global warming is a form of religion.


Everyone can fully understand why humans need to control their own pollution. However, I do not believe that it is within the scope of man to determine and attempt to maintain an "ideal" temperature or climate for this Earth.

Cooking with AP: Polls Radically Change Party Mix to Fabricate an Obama Trend

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-blumer/2008/10/02/cooking-ap-polls-radically-changes-party-mix-fabricate-obama-trend

The data is included in the link above. Here's the just of the story:

After correcting for differences in the samples, almost all of Obama's double-digit pickup disappears, leaving McCain with four- and three-point leads without and with leaners, respectively. Even if one argues that the first poll showed a too-small gap between the two parties in the number of people sampled, substituting the 5-point difference Gallup identified shortly after the GOP convention would still leave McCain with a slight lead.
Either AP isn't supervising its GfK cooks properly, or it's directing them to poison discussions of presidential race, while hoping that no one notices the rancid product it is clearly producing.
AP waitress -- er, reporter -- Liz Sidoti brought out the new poll's results for our consumption yesterday with this exultant intro:
Barack Obama has surged to a seven-point lead over John McCain one month before the presidential election, lifted by voters who think the Democrat is better suited to lead the nation through its sudden financial crisis, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that underscores the mounting concerns of some McCain backers.
Likely voters now back Obama 48-41 percent over McCain, a dramatic shift from an AP-GfK survey that gave the Republican a slight edge nearly three weeks ago, before Wall Street collapsed and sent ripples across worldwide markets.
As you can see above, her celebration is founded on fabrication; thus, her "explanations" are deep-fried in deception.
Just because AP, GfK, and Sidoti are serving us this rotten recipe doesn't mean that readers have to swallow it. So don't.

Hold your nose and vote for it???

I have heard two different U.S. Senators in the last two days say on the news that they don't like the Senate Bailout Bill. They say that it contains too much pork. They say that it contains spending and incentives for things that have nothing to do with the "pending economic collapse". Then, after explaining all the things that they don't like about the bill, they say... Well... Since it is for the good of the country, I'm going to have to "Hold my nose and vote for it". HOW RIDICULOUS!

First of all, where is the evidence of the "pending economic collapse"? Sure, the stock market has dropped. Sure, some of the major banks and government run entities have failed. What's next? Where is the proof of what lies ahead if government doesn't spend this 700 billion dollars?

This whole thing stinks! It reminds me of a used car sales tactic. BUY NOW! BUY NOW!

How many people have ever listened to someone say BUY NOW and did not regret the purchase six months later.

I say that it is about time that these poor business models have failed. That is business. The strong survive and the weak perish. It is natural selection. A perfect model of nature. Let it happen! Those who survive will be stronger for it in the end. Don't vote for this bill. Don't pull us all down just to prop up these failed business models for the next ten or twenty years. Don't commit this money just to postpone their ultimate failure. If they don't die out or change their core business practices they are doomed to fail again. There is no avoiding it.

How many times can our government expect to go to the well until it is all dried up?

This is all too simple.

If it smells, STAY AWAY FROM IT!
If you don't like it, VOTE NO!

This link contains more information on the bill:
http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?articleID=20081002_16_A1_hbilli440247