Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Intrade Prediction Markets

An interesting site. But difficult to participate. Try to fund an account and you will see what I mean. Credit cards typically don't work from inside the U.S. You can wire funds through your bank or fedex/mail a check to Ireland (2-4 business days at least). Fedex charges $30 fee if sending less than $500. If it is hard to get money in, I have to imagine that it would be equally as hard to get money out. After looking into this, I think that I'll just keep my money where it belongs (in my pocket) and watch from the sidelines.

Note: I do not believe that the intrade markets track reality well because the intrade market is not made up of ordinary people. Real people have to commit real funds before you obtain a real market. Wide spread use will not occur without ease of funding. The people that go to the following lengths to risk their money do not represent the normal population. As a result, the intrade markets are skewed to the beliefs of the participating population (traders who are willing to wire funds to Ireland).

Here is further dialogue that explains the lengths some have gone to fund and intrade account. Funding your Intrade account from the USA

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